Shanghai Exchange Explores Token Futures as AI Consumption Explodes 1000x

The Shanghai Futures Exchange is quietly studying a new class of financial contracts tied to AI tokens—the fundamental units of data that large language models process. While still in early research, the effort signals a distinct approach from U.S. rivals, where exchanges like CME and ICE are building futures around GPU compute costs.

China’s daily token usage surged from 100 billion at the start of 2024 to over 140 trillion by March 2025—a thousandfold increase, according to official data. Liu Liehong, head of the National Data Administration, described tokens as “the settlement unit linking technological supply with commercial demand.”

The proposed contracts would track the pricing of AI services themselves, rather than hardware rental rates. HashKey Group CEO Xiao Feng likened tokens to “digital fuel” for AI models. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently suggested demand could spawn an entirely new asset class.

Shortages are already biting. Several Chinese AI firms rationed access recently due to tight computing power. A standardized futures contract could help data center operators, model developers, and heavy users hedge against cost volatility—and create price signals to guide investment in chips, energy, and infrastructure.

No launch date has been set. Regulatory approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission remains pending. Brokerage Baocheng Futures estimated compute futures could debut in three to five years, citing fragmented markets as a hurdle.

Beijing treats AI as a strategic sector and has accelerated development of a spot market for computing power. The token economy now sits at the center of that push. Meanwhile, price wars intensify: Xiaomi slashed API costs by 99 percent on some models, and DeepSeek made steep discounts permanent. Chinese inference costs now average one-sixth those of Western rivals, per Jefferies analysts.

Skeptics caution that tokens are only as valuable as the models behind them. China risks lagging in foundational capabilities even as it floods the market with cheap access. But the consumption trajectory is unmistakable. Financial markets respond to scale. The Shanghai exchange’s quiet work may soon produce a contract that lets companies large and small manage exposure to the intelligence economy.